2022 Weather and Pest Outlook

This episode featured special guest Dennis Todey, Director of the Midwest Climate Hub in Ames, Iowa in addition to Bruce Potter, UMN Extension IPM specialist and Dr. Jeffrey Coulter, UMN Extension Corn Agronomist to discuss the weather and pest outlooks for the 2022 growing season. This session discusses the growing season thus far, which has been slow, with cool and cloudy conditions. As a result, planting progress has been slow despite precipitation being close to normal in much of Minnesota. Southerly winds have also brought some migratory insect pests like Black Cutworm and Armyworm moths up into Minnesota. However, the long range forecast predicts a shift to warmer and drier conditions into the summer months.

Transcripts are auto-transcribed. If you need more accurate transcripts of an episode for ADA purposes, please contact Anthony Hanson - hans4022@umn.edu.

I'd also like to introduce our panelists that are helping along with the program today.

Anthony Hansen integrated pest management out of the Morris area along with Jared goblin our crops.
Educator from Western Minnesota, and finally Dr. Jeff Colter, University of Minnesota. Corn Specialist, and Ryan Miller, and Seth Nave, also from the University of Minnesota, but without a further ado, I think.

Dennis, if you're on at this point in time, we talk a little bit about some of the things that we could mention today in terms of the weather outlook here for Minnesota farmers so i'll turn it over to you. Okay, Thanks for having me appreciate the invitation, and I assume get this thing to go out of the way here.

You're seeing the preview screens correct not the not the full version. Okay, let's see trying to get this so sorry about this folks. Yeah, it was hid behind it's hidden behind the. It was hidden behind the text message box. So, anyway, thanks for having me here.

(Link to slides used https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IJqbIh4AF7qykObRoSIOD5vNeo9racGv/view)

I understand that this is going to be used for a podcast so I’ll be as descriptive as possible in what I'm showing you here for the for the people who are not seeing the slides thanks for the invitation always good to talk about growing season conditions, and what we're looking at and what's going to be coming up. Dick did kind of mention or date sorry I called him by his brother's name. I know his brother. Dave mentioned about the addressing quickly.

La Nina is being talked about from several folks about potential issues. With this what We're talking about with La Nina We're talking about sea surface temperature, rows and temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. So the graphic we have here on the left is showing you a map of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. Blue areas are colder than average the yellows, browns, reds are warmer than average, so we are still in a full-fledged La Nina.

The Graphic on the right-hand side shows how that has changed over time over the last year. It varies in strength. Typically, La Ninas are a wintertime phenomenon tend to weaken during the summertime, but when they do influence come, happen during the spring and summer, they do have some influences, and we'll talk about here in the next slide. so that is a player, and what's going on right now and what we had for this spring may not have been too much of a surprise to us, because the graphic on the left here shows what happens during La Ninas and the way of spring temperatures, and you can see a temperature that you know areas of blue throughout the whole northern plains and upper Midwest indicating that linen is during the springtime can lead to cooler conditions, and we've had that I’ll show you that here, in a graphic here in just a minute.

Now, the other thing about La Ninas or the opposite phase El Nino, is it does give us some look at of
time out several months in advance, as to what the outlooks could, because they do influence what's happening in our weather and climate here, and the Graphic on the right hand side shows lots of browns to yellows throughout the center part of the country, and that is what happens during previous La Ninas in the way of summer precipitation.

So it's indicating chances for decrease precipitation throughout all the planes, and even Minnesota, Iowa, you know a good portion of the corn belt now is this a guarantee that's going to be a problem for the rest of the coin for the rest of the season.

No, it's not a guarantee but it's an increased level of risk, and something we're going to keep an eye on as we go along here.

Okay, just recapping last 30 days real quickly where we are. We have been very cold the last 30 days we're showing a graphic of this departure from average difference from average temperatures over the last 30 days. Lots of blues and purples in from Iowa, Minnesota, up into the northern plains, indicating below average temperatures.

Most of Minnesota has been 4 to 6 degrees below average parts of western Minnesota to North Dakota have been even colder. 6 to 10 degrees below average. So that's been a real player in in the conditions that we're dealing with right now we'll talk about that here more in just a second and the way of pre-s and I forgot to change the image here this 30-day precipitation, not 30-day temperatures upper left hand side is how much precipitation we've had the last 30 days lower right-hand side is percent of normal and precipitation. So, the take home message here is that Minnesota, the northern, about the quarter of Minnesota, has been wetter than average.

Most. the rest of the State has kind of been a mixed below, slightly below or slightly above average. So, the last 30 days haven't been that wet from excess precipitation. But our problem has been that we've had very cold temperatures, and seemingly quite a bit of cloudiness that has kept our soils from drying out.

We haven't had a lot of rain, but we've not been able to dry out. We've had plenty of wind, and We can talk about that here in just a bit to dry things out. We just haven't had the temperature and the sunlight to help us fix that. What that's led to is reduced field work days lower right hand side.

This is a graphic of the number of days of field work. Minnesota last week. You guys keep in improving. You were up to 6.2 point 6 days of field work last week, and that's increased the last 3 weeks. But you started from 0 point, one at the beginning of that so that's been our problem not only in Minnesota, but all across the Midwest. The prom. the other put situation. This is put this in delayed corn, planting the Graphic in the upper left-hand side. All those spaghetti looking lines are the progress in corn planting.

Currently the red line that's at the bottom is the second lowest corn percent corn planted at this point only behind 2,013, and we're only counting days since year 2,000 or years, since 2,000 so we're only behind 2,013 pretty soon there's a crossover point, where 2,019 became the slowest. 2,013 was slow early, and then we were able to kick off around. This time, and I think we're gonna be able to make some quicker progress here, as we're going along here, too.

Okay, looking ahead next 7 days. This is a graphic that shows amount of precipitation forecast by the computer models over the next 7 days and centered on Minnesota. You know the whole state. looks isn't you know in the vicinity of an inch to an inch and a half a precipitation. It's not a guarantee everyone's going to get that amount. But those are the relative amounts that we can expect. A lot of those is going to come in the next 2 days, as we have chances of storms.

The next 2 days also, by the way, look out for severe weather. The next 2 days over much of the State Watch National Weather Service for updated information on that. Then we have a several day window that there could be progress.

We could maybe be able to get some progress. and then, towards the end of the 7 day period, we have some more precipitation, coming also very warm. The next couple days. it's not unheard of to get 90 degree days this time of year. But it's considering where we've been it's been a pretty big flip, and then we will moderate into next week, and that's what we're going to show you here is the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook. kind of a difference of across the country southern parts of the Us.

Looking very warm, and especially in southwest, more likely dry. But the northern tier of the Us. especially most of Minnesota, has a slightly better chance of being cooler again next week, and slightly better chance of increase precipitation. But those probabilities are very, very slight. So back to closer to average temperatures what I would expect going into next week, and then the you know, going back to the La Nina issue, I got a graphic here showing the seasonal temperature outlook for June, July, August, and the temperature outlook on the left-hand side. You see lots of tans to Reds increased chances for warmer than average.

That's the you know, La Nina as a player there. Also, the computer models have been playing pretty strongly, and then with dry conditions to our 2 in the planes. Very good likelihood of warmer than average conditions there, but that does extend up into Minnesota.

And then on the right-hand side. Precipitation outlook also has much the planes, and then the central corn belt, with a slightly increased chance for dryer, so warmer and dryer is an at increased risk this year again is it a guarantee, not a guarantee but it's at increased risk.

So real. Briefly, then, just a a recap, you know. Cooler, somewhat letter This spring. conditions are are improving soils have warmed up, but we're still wet, and then, you know, warmer this week slightly cooler wetter next week, and then chances of warmer and dryer into the summer. Okay, quite a bit there, but tried to consent, setting as quickly as possible.

So. thanks for having me Let's move on to the next part.

Thank you very much, Dennis. Any other questions from our panelists or co-hosts?

And if folks do have questions, make sure you type them into the Q.

And a box, and we'll make sure we get those asked Dennis.

I do have one question related to the interaction between temperatures and cloudiness, you know. Typically, this time here seems like, when you have sun, the temperature really warms up.

What's the mean? Is that kind of a pretty good relationship or you know one driving the other. How does that that all work?

I guess it is. it's a clouds create an interesting interplay in the way of temperatures.

Obviously, when you have cloud cover, you get less sunlight coming, in and that's during the daytime, so that means that you look at less sunlight coming in, less able to warm up during the day, The other thing the clouds do though, is

they prevent the loss of radiation, a radiation heat at night, so actually keep you warmer at night.

If you have cloud cover, so if we're wanting to avoid frost or freeze conditions that does help us stay warmer at night.

So clouds have this great moderating influence in the way of temperature overall.

We just Haven't had you know we would if you had sunny days.

You would heat up, even with cooler temperatures you'd heat up during the day.

We just haven't had that much this year so Dennis right now we're going to be having a period of rainy weather here.

The next 2 days, exceptionally really I think abnormally high temperatures and dew points.

So there's a risk of a more severe weather coming into that.

But immediately behind the latter part of May, if we get back into the fields.

Do we anticipate? good grown conditions?

And then also a lot of farmers in Minnesota.

Obviously use a pre-emergent service side or are we not you're gonna guarantee rainfall.

But it sure would be nice at some point towards the end of May And let's see the 2 week outlook I showed you does carry on into near the end of May. so that week 2 period does have some increased chances for

precipitation. I’m less I’m not very concerned about lack of precipitation.

Now I’m more concerned about a lack of precipitation As we go on into the summer, so I would expect there to be continued to chances for precipitation.

There was a one question in here comment a little bit about the wind. and now we've talked about that in in the past a number of years, when we talked about making out some of these early post-emergence applications any feeling output of La Nina here and as systems move through and jet stream are you gonna be just battling the same amount of wind as typical, or any comments There We don't have good indicators on wind forecasts. We do temperature and precipitation outlooks.

We don't talk about wind i think with something maybe we should do some more work on one of our problems with wind is, we don't have as good a climatology of wind as we do temperature and precipitation we have detailed temperature and precipitation going back 100 years we don't have that same information for wind back to the question.

The question. Yes, we have been windier than average that is pretty clear, based on some of the data that we have available.

Unfortunately, we don't have quite the assessment to be able to describe it better, you know, has it just been has been, you know, peak winds have been stronger, and then we've had calmer times or just been overall windy we generally have been windier than average throughout much of the year.

So far that does concern me, going on in the way of in the way of applications, because people are going to be doing various applications.

The do drift. So, I’m concerned about people trying to get that done. And when they're gonna see a lot of drift issues related to that.

Do. What do we see going on? I I can't say too much forecast for wind?

But it seems to have persisted. so I would you know, plan that way, that the windier conditions are going to stick with this for a while.

I think that's a good time to segment a little bit here over to Bruce Potter.

We'll talk about integrated test management. and basically what the critters are up to in our fields here.

So top first thinking about whether still a little. but I know one of them main ones you look at is black cup worm.

We talk about weather fronts affecting what we deal with that one.

So you want to give folks just to quick primer on black cut worm, and what you've been seeing so far with it.

Well, sure you know we're kind of on the edge of the great planes.

But it's actually it's engineered is pretty efficient transport system for insects to get north and south.

In the spring and fall, and so what we see with what black cut rooms they don't over winter here, and it's the same with a lot of our insect pets army worm potato leaf hopper astrolifi, or some of the small green if it's through they overwinter in the South, and then and then they're looking for the right weather systems to help bring those north and if we have a low pressure system in the West that moves across and got high pressure in the East.

You got a system that's pumping up worries golf there, and it'll bring in sucks along with them.

You know, and we're in home insects we get kind of depends on we're the low tracks, and it also depends on where we get precipitation.

A lot of these end up falling out on the back side of a thunderstorm, so we've had a couple of those events this summer with black cover.

Not a horribly big year for the insect, but 20 is 20 ninth thirtieth first of May we had a system that that brought significant captures into parts of Minnesota And now we know where that biofix is.

When, when the insects have arrived, we can start using degree date models to predict when exile hatch when leaf feeding will start when cover are gonna be big enough to cut corn and also when they should be the pup paint and the risk starts to go down, and I’ll just looking at some of the maps you put out.

It looks like Southern Minnesota is seen some coupons at least. I know or Central Minnesota, where now I have trap out to New York Farm.

Now we found a couple. but pretty sparse that kind of the trend you're seeing across the State is kind of a or South gradient.

Oh, yeah, and it's pretty typical for Minnesota.

In that. Those winds that transport insects to the north usually.

Move from those systems move from the south to the North in the spring.

We'll get migrations into northwest Minnesota, for example, but they tend to happen a little bit later in the spring.

Then the and we get those in the south, and as far as black cut rooms. were kind of on the edge of high risk in southern Minnesota overall as you go south.

Into Iowa and Eastern corn belt.

They get more consistent migrations up.

So thank you a little bit more about what we might say in the spring, on the insect side of things.

What are you keeping an eye out for I know we've heard some reports.

People concerned about healthcare. I may have also been clover legal out there.

So do I talk a little bit about both identification what we're looking for, and also kind of what our timeline is because sometimes it's late may around memorial day that we're starting to really look at a healthy little more. Well, sure and we'll hit we need to sort of back circle back a little bit to some of these migratory insects.

But I actually found the first off alpha we in southwest Minnesota yesterday.

It's right on the early side they're just starting to move into alpha.

No, I haven't seen any larvae or anything yet.

But it's something to something to keep an eye on what we don't know is we had in the southern part of the State Lambertton southwest Minnesota, as you get into the

southwest corner most of that winter was pretty open, and we had some real cold weather.

And that, I think probably have an impact on overwintering survival on some insects.

As you go into areas where we got more snow, I think, things like Syria, alfalfa, Weieville, bean leaf beetle.

Those sorts of things are gonna have no better chance of winning.

So how about our I think in a last insect question Here is think about sea corn, Mega, that one should be coming up pretty soon in terms of emergence, and also we're in a little 8 iron corn.

Planting that might line up for people pretty well in terms of when the pest is merging and when planting is occurring.

So what's your? people keeping in mind for that Well, I think for seed corn Mega, you can look at the greedy models and kind of get a idea when the adults are active you don't want to be incorporating minor or Greenman or you know, ahead of that that period, and then planting right close to it.

Because you're gonna have soybeans or corn emerging about the same time.

Those larvae. are really active and looking for something so feels with a lot of organic matter and fields that have had a lot of under autumn. And if you're getting that planted close to when those adults throughout those of the fields. You take special care of and either shift your planning to a little bit, or make sure you've got a good C treatment on the on the scene, so we can move over to some of our other pests Think about diseases a little bit. What do you think we should be keeping an eye out for with kind of our cold wet spring a lot of folks haven't had anything in the ground yet, so we would be as worried about issues with seem to sitting there but there could be some people that caught out thoroughly, too.

So what kind of issues could we be seeing with the current conditions?

Well, as far as diseases. I think anytime you have but spring you tend to see some more problems, and it seems like they've filter, too, through to later in the season.

We see some more issues with things like Brown stamps on desk syndrome, especially if we get some real heavy, sulking soil, and the soybeans are already planet and there's some of that out

there. guys made a lot of progress around here since last Friday.

And they got a lot of quite a bit of corn in some soybeans southwest corner.

They've really knocked a lot of stuff out.

So generally, if you get cool web conditions you're at risk for things like Cathy.

And if it's warm, and wet you have more risk for things like aphids and the spidermites can go either way.

Point is is that as long as it's wet chance for seedling diseases and see rut diseases go up and It just a matter depends on the temperature you're gonna have an issue with so we're probably not looking at too much for weeds quite yet.

Especially with pillars going on, but no plant or seeds in the ground.

People work in their pre-emerges. So anything people should keep in an Io kind of is our last point to think about for test control there on the week side of things.

Right now. Well, I was beginning in the post emergence a little bit later, but pre-emergence obviously the main issue to think about right now, Right?

Well, I’m hoping most guys are not ignoring putting a pre on planting, and you know right now we've got a lot of the lamb's quarters up a lot of the rag weeds are up ribbons I’m you and seeing some pig weeds and a few fox tales up so until is just going on right now.

You know, ahead of planning is least knocking out per part of the first flush.

If we get a little moisture on it. I think the trees are gonna do a lot better.

We had some issues last summer when it was dry and then and then I think it's gonna be a matter of you know, using the right post merger recited getting it on through right time.

I'm not a weed scientist but so I’m making all that up.

But it's probably too not too harmful this week.

Science is easy right Bruce that's what they call me in college, you know.

I'm, looking at Dennis is some of the things that Dennis was sharing.

You know. I think that's a really valid point Probably get the pries on earlier rather than later, just to make sure they get activated, because it looks like we might turn a little bit on the dry side and then end.

Up in a situation like last year. So just despite the fact that we're really wet now, or feel wet, you know earlier is Probably better, I guess, just looking at that podcast I think kind of along with this tillage subject is you know we're talking about things like black cutworm or you know but see corn maggot and timing of planting to when the adults wrote when those moths come in what they're looking at for is early season. we drove they're looking for a lot of times depressional areas versus a little bit moisture soil

So we've got some hence on where to look for these in the spring, and feel corn that was planted when there was planted, or the fields that were worked before those moths arrive.

Those are at much less risk. The fields that were worked after that off flight came in.

Those are the ones you're gonna want to key in and especially certain types of fields.

On the other hand, we've got army worms in those feels we really want to pay attention to our some people want to plant corn into a rye cover crop.

That works just fine until you've got a flight of army worms that are looking for a lush vegetation.

They're laying eggs in the in the rye, and that's fine.

Once you kill that rye off they move to corn.

You can have some real, real, significant problems so scouting needs to be where you've got these cover crops really needs to be.

Kicked up a notch say Bruce I know you're not the social media king quite yet.

But you did post a picture of Buckthorn and on the Twitter this morning, or at least I did see it this morning.

I don't know our prognosticate here.

How early, you know, given this current weather, could we be seen?

A Soybean if it's typically we worried about it in July.

But I mean there's a there apparent that they could be with this in June.

Well, the reason I had that picture of the buckthorn on is, is there some work out of Canada in the past that indicates that about the time that buckthorn budbreak occurs, is when you start to see there's a phenological niche nick there with soybean If it egg hatching. So right now those eggs on buckthorn, anything that survived the winner should be hatching

And then I think really the big factor, I think, for those aphids is how good a job they can do.

Colonizing soybeans in the spring so if we've got a lot of soybeans up where those are planned or volunteer when they're making that move to buckthorn

They're gonna do a little bit better if they're the if they're trying to move when there's not much soybean for them to colonize they're not gonna do as well and then we're gonna look at summer weather and Dennis was talking about warmer and dryer that's probably not gonna a little bit on the warm and dry side will favor if it's But if it's was too far. things like spider mites are gonna are gonna take all if it's aren't gonna do as well.

We've got just a couple of minutes left out we've got Jeff Colter with us, and there was one question came in from one of our our significant extension people from way back when Roger Oldowski here, a little bit of on used to be.

We talked about May tenth and yes, this was years ago, Jeff, before you started here, so you can't be credit or blamed with it.

But we thought, well, maybe tenth corn yields are going to be decreased.

What's the current thinking and recommendation here in terms of when we talk about corn yields significantly being decreased, or and or changing corn hybrids?

You want to sum that up for us? Yeah, thanks, Dave.

Well, recent analysis of corn Planting day trials conducted in Minnesota from 2,009 to 2,016 kind of shows the similar thing.

But a little bit later, for when that delay in yield potential starts so for corn planted through may 12, we can still expect near maximum yield.

But after May 12 you'll start to drop off between May Thirteenth and May, 19, we're looking at about 97 to 98% of maximum yield, which is still not bad and then when we get to May 20 to May. 25 then we're looking at about 94 to 96% of maximum yield.

So typically we don't see any reduction in yield potential till we've had a 140 growing degree days accumulated, and after tomorrow we will have had a 140 growing degree days accumulated at was

Sega. So these yield reduction estimates that I just mentioned, I think, are accurate for this growing season, with regards to changing hybrid maturity.

Not really to worry about yet. But, when we get to May 22 to May 20 eighth, then we want to thinking, want to be thinking about switching to hybrids that are 5 to 7 relative maturity units earlier

than a full season hybrid for your area now. Seth Knave, you're lurking in the back background here and off of your photo on, or if you can hear us but quick comments on soybeans I think

We've got some time here on soybean penny We don't need to be running to the exit door here yet.

Yeah, my videos locked now, too. so I’ll just speak clearly for you, since you don't have to look at me.

I So it means really follow pretty closely what Jeff just mentioned on the corn side.

So obviously earlier is better. but we're really not ding too badly yet.

And so I think we're in we're in really pretty good shape at this point.

So we always say these, you know. First week of may is ideal for us, and soybeans really. so we're just a little bit behind that.

So we're still in good shape I don't know if there are any other comments here from any of the panelists Dennis you put in there.

If they, if they want to really follow you around all day long, and they can do that on Twitter.

Evidently. see what you do for a living. But, you know you. you indicated that, and you can put that back in, I think, in question.

There. Any other comments from any panelists, Bruce, etc.

At this point. Well, if there are I don't think there's any Jared, or answer any other questions that came through the chat or the Q. A.

Dave, Dave. One more thing I should you know you mentioned about warm temperatures, even though the temperatures are not incredibly warm.

They're going to be much warmer than we have been so for people working outside, just to take note of that, and be careful to allow your body to readjust to the warmer temperatures.

As I walked the dogs this morning it was for 70, with high sixties due points, and I kind of caught myself going outside.

Well, I should preface this, that You're speaking from the deep south down there in Ames Iowa.

And I I trust those Iowa farmers are getting their crop in the ground as well.

I was not that much further than you guys. And actually I, Northwest Iowa is Western.

Parts of Iowa are drier, and then the plain States actually have had more progress, and I I was wondering about Southwest.

Minnesota might not have had been a huddle.

More progress like Northwest Iowa because of a bit drier conditions.

There. yeah, Dennis, the southwest corner they've been. They've been going little bit earlier and a little bit harder than some of the other areas.

Alright Jared anything else, or Anthony that you have at this time?

Oh, I think we're kind of at that 8 30 mark, so I think we'll kind of wrap it up.

So again, we want to really thank our sponsors Minnesota Soybean research and a promotion Council along with the Minnesota Corn Research, and Promotion Council as well.

Hopefully, we provided some timely information and just market on your calendar every Wednesday morning from 8 to 8 30, and if there's no other comments from our panelists and staff we want to thank again. Dennis and Bruce for being our principal guests here this morning. And we look forward to your information and topics as we go forward. through, 2,022. Thank you again and have a good day. Good luck out there and be safe.

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